Tinder was launched in 2012. Its active membership peaked at 73m in 2020. Since then there has been a steady quarter on quarter decline. It is not alone, all major sites are in decline. Bumble and Badoo (outside the USA) are also in decline. Each is trying to reverse the trend but with little success. Members, revenue and share prices continue to plummet.

Some are working on the match itself. They are betting on AI to create a better “hit rate” for users. The “Catch 22” is that a successful match means two lost members, at least for a while. How successful do the firms actually want the match to be? Others believe that the issue is safeguarding, and this is deterring new users. They are ramping up supervision and teaching people how to behave. Others are diversifying and adapting their technology to build friendship groups. Other smaller start-ups are building “hybrid” models. A match comes with a free drink together at a sponsoring local bar.

There is a “fashion” element. There was a recent survey from Forbes the business magazine. It showed that nearly 80% of respondents where “emotionally, mentally and physically exhausted by these apps”. However, is the problem much bigger and driven by changes in society?

The Relationship Recession

This was the title of an article in the Financial Times by John Burns-Murdoch. He argues that the declines in fertility around the world are no longer driven by couples choosing to have fewer children. Instead, it is the declining number of couples. In a previous Newsletter I suggested that this was the problem in Japan. He has looked around the world and found the same pattern. Almost everywhere the number of couples forming is in decline. Government surveys often ask whether an individual is part of “a couple”. In the UK, in 1990, 70% of young non-graduates (24-34) said that they were. Today that number has dropped to 55%. For graduates the number is down by 5% from a lower start.

The UK is not alone. In all parts of the world the results are the same. In Europe but also in Latin America. Across the different parts of Asia.It is even visible in sub-Saharan Africa. The number of couples forming is in decline. Is this what is affecting the Tinder numbers. Or is the failure of Tinder part of the problem? Is it working from home or a COVID effect?

Little Hope for the Future

We can look in the crystal ball, at the behaviour of the next generation, the teens to 24-year-olds. What is happening to their behaviour. Does is offer hope? Unfortunately, just like Japan, this group are become hermits. They are spending more and more time alone. Time-use surveys are done all over the world. Respondents keep a diary of how they spend their days. In 2010 this younger age group in the US was spending 4 hours a day alone. When they grew up that generation became the group who today are not forming couples. In 2023 the teens and early twenties group were spending 6 hours of every day alone. The numbers are almost identical in the UK and Europe.

The diaries also track time spent meeting up with friends and socializing. In 2010 90% went out at least once a week. Today that number is 68%. One fifth of this population do not go out socializing, even once a week. With age our socializing does tend to decline. This group is behaving like the 30 year olds in the previous generation.

There are many explanations. There are changes in norms that might influence this behaviour. The good news is that there will be less drunken evenings and misbehaving. The bad news is loneliness has been shown to have negative consequences on wellbeing. Undoubtedly one major impact has been the arrival of the internet and particularly smart phones.

What the data shows is a large increase in the hours spent on line. They are gaming, scrolling social media and watching videos. This is particularly the case for men. They are often asked about which activities in their week are the most fulfilling. Invariably they rate these smart phone activities as the least fulfilling. Despite this they carry on doing it.

The Fertility Conundrum

Fewer couples mean little chance of more babies. The US data shows that if couple formation had remained at its 2010 level, the births in the US today would not be declining. Can we blame Tinder and Bumble? Probably not. There are start ups focusing on creating face-to-face meetings. If people do not value being together, then Tinder and all matching sites have a shrinking market. The next generation will not help when they “grow up” they seem to prefer a smart phone to a partner.