In January 2019 the late Prince Philip, the husband of Queen Elizabeth was involved in a car accident. He was driving his car and was alone. At the time he was 97 years old.

Do you remember passing your driving test. The sense of freedom that came with your licence. Driving gives us independence all our lives. The current Third Agers are more likely to keep their licences into old age. They have grown up with a car. They continue to see it as a major part of their mobility. They want to carry on modern day consuming. They need to be able to drive. Older road users today travel more than a comparable age group of only twenty years ago.

An Explosion in Third and Fourth Age Drivers.

At the time of Prince Philip’s accident there were over 110,000 licenced drivers in the UK over 90. This number is forecast to explode. The European Union forecasts that a quarter of all drivers will be over 65 by 2030. In 2000 the Netherlands had only 14% of drivers being over 65, but this is forecast to double by 2030. According to the EU twenty seven percent of all drivers will be over 65 by 2030. This will dramatically change driving and roads for everyone.

An aging driver population is a major issue for Governments. Mobility can provide an older person with independence. With independence comes psychological well-being and good health. Being able to consume is a key part of maintaining independence. We need to go out shopping, to restaurants and to socialize. Governments want to maintain the independence of their ageing populations for as long as possible. This improves the wellbeing of Society. Dependency also brings with it huge social costs of treatment and care and is to be avoided. At the same time they need to keep the roads safe.

A Danger to Themselves not Others.

More cars on the road driven by older drivers also mean more older passengers. Older drivers tend to drive older cars with less safety features. As a result older drivers and passengers account for twenty five percent of all traffic fatalities today. The sixty- five to seventy-five age group is twenty percent more likely to have a fatal auto accident than the middle aged group. The over seventy- fives are twice as likely.

This damning data seems to confirm the age stereotypes of the old being bad drivers. However, the data hides several surprising facts. The over sixty-five group still has fewer fatalities than the young adult age group. Moreover this younger group presents a bigger threat to other drivers. Older drivers pose a bigger threat to themselves and their passengers.

Two thirds of accidents involving Second Age drivers cause “fatalities to others”. Beyond sixty the incidence of “fatalities to others” starts to drop. It drops to less than twenty percent of accidents involving the over eighty- fives. They may have more accidents but they are a danger to themselves not to others. The reasons for this are clear. Older drivers are more risk averse and drive much more defensively. They are less likely to drink drive or drive when drowsy. The threat to themselves is due to their own fragility. The impact of an injury on their long-term health and recovery, is far worse.

Older drivers accidents are predictable from the declines described throughout these Newsletters. They include failing to recognize and respond to signs. Older drivers fail to visually check for the movement of other vehicles. Direction and lane control are poorer. Physical control of the vehicle itself also declines. Older drivers are more likely to have accidents at intersections than their younger selves. Drivers aged over sixty-five are more likely to have a multiple- vehicle crash at an intersection. It is not surprising that Prince Philip's accident was at a junction.

Older drivers are less able to select safe gaps in traffic. They are less able to estimate the speed of on-coming traffic. They underestimate the speed of vehicles travelling fast. They overestimate the speed of slower vehicles. As a result they are more than twice as likely than a middle-aged driver to turn in to the path of an on-coming vehicle. This is due to a complex interaction of factors. Loss of peripheral vision and the ability to turn the head and body play a big part. Mental processing, reaction time and hand-eye co-ordination are just as much to blame. For the same reasons, older drivers are more likely to have accidents feeding on and off a motorway. The data suggests that here they are more likely to be hit from behind either because of their own actions or not.

Giving Up Your Independence

We lose our mobility not just because we are no longer able to do things. We start to believe that we are unsafe. It does not matter whether we are talking about driving, cycling, or even walking. That feeling can come from the reality of our own declining abilities or our perceptions of them. It can also come from the Enemy Within (See Newsletter #017). This is the acceptance of discriminatory old age stereotypes and conformance with them. “People expect my driving to be bad, so I had better stop”.

In the meantime older drivers “self-regulate” their driving. They alter driving patterns at both the strategic and tactical levels. Strategically they plan the trip to avoid situations in which they find themselves uncomfortable. Older drivers, for example, tend to avoid driving on motorways particularly at night or in the rain. Tactically older drivers will leave greater distances to the car in front. They avoid distractions . They will stop making calls from the car. They will not read a map or even talk with passengers whilst driving . Finally they will avoid parallel parking!

These decisions are rational since they mirror the accident statistics. However they may or may not mirror an individual’s deficiencies. Are older drivers are aware of their own deficiencies or conforming to a false stereotype? The stereotype may be out of date. The speed of improvement in both physical and mental ability for a given age is so big . Even over the last twenty years the ability to drive at a given age has grown significantly. The stereotypes and the self-perception have not changed fast enough.

Giving Up

Giving up or losing a driving licence is painful. It signals an end to independence. Ensuring that the stereotypes are accurate is only part of making sure it is the right decision. Governments all over the world are changing the roads to enable older drivers to feel comfortable staying behind the wheel longer.

My mobility journey has gone from walking last week to driving this. The next steps on my intellectual journey will be the changes in the urban environment being made to fit the older driver.