The 2021 UK Census showed a surprising figure. 51% of all children born in the UK were born out of wedlock. This is the first time since records began in 1845 that more than half of children were born this way. Before 1845 there were parish records. The best estimate from these is that only 7% of children were “Illegitimate” or at least declared that way. Such was the shame that such births were often concealed.

It is an amazing shift in a short period of time. Only in 1987 was the distinction legally eradicated. Until then a child born out of wedlock was deemed to have no father. As such they could not inherit. Until the 1970’s, illegitimacy was seen as something shameful. Since then the norms have changed. Across the OECD there has been an increase every year since then. Italy was one of the slowest countries to change this particular social norm. Perhaps it was the power of the Church. As recently as 1999 only 10% of children were born of parents that were not married. This compared to over 30% across the other OECD countries at that time. By 2019 this had jumped to 34% and converged with the OECD average. The trend was strongest in Northern and Central Italy. Perhaps because they are more cosmopolitan. Other Italian norms changed as well. Grandparents accepted their role irrespective of the marital status of their child.

Why is Fertility Falling in Japan?

There are two interesting numbers. Only 2% of Japanese children are born out of wedlock. As importantly, the fertility rate amongst married women is 1.9 per female. Not replacement level but very close. It seems that the problem is a shortage of marriages, not babies. If there were more marriages the population decline could at least be slowed.

(It is worth pointing out the challenges of trying to increase populations again. Returning to replacement fertility levels will only stop the decline. There are many less women of childbearing age. Unless childbearing age can be extended, fertility has to jump significantly above replacement levels.)

The Sixteenth Japanese National Fertility Survey provides the answer to these strange numbers. It is not the economic costs of marriage that is the barrier. Only a quarter of people say this is an issue. There are specific Japanese cultural issues.

There is a mismatch in the marriage market. Females out number men at university. 80% of male graduates will marry someone with a lower educational level, usually from a junior college. 80% of female graduates marry graduates. This has two knock-on effects.

For men without a college degree there is less chance of finding a partner. In a previous Newsletter I talked about the “ Japanese Herbivores” (Newsletter #065). There is a group of young adults, particularly men, who profess to have no interest in looking for sex and romantic relationships. The have been nicknamed "herbivores". This is not a small group. A quarter of Japanese men and women in the age group 18-39 are virgins. To be precise they have had no heterosexual sex. 25.1% of men are classified as “herbivores”. They tend to be from lower socio-economic groups.

For female graduates there is a different problem. There are not enough male graduates to go around. Their class mates seem to prefer to marry women who are less qualified.

For these highly qualified women other societal norms get in the way. Careers, parental penalty etc are the same as most other countries. On top of that there are Japanese specific norms. Only 10% of couples co-habit before getting married. There is no way to “try” marriage, because of those social norms. The risk of a "mistake" is higher. Japanese law requires couples to use only one name. It does not specify whose. 90% chose to use the man’s name. For a female graduate on a career path giving up their name can be a major issue. Family tradition says that it is the role of the wife of the eldest son to take care of his parents. All conspire against marriage.

The Japanese Government has focused on the wrong part of the problem. Like many other governments they are offering financial incentives to married couples to have more children. They are trying to make it possible for women to stay in the workforce and have families. To tackle the marriage market problem is much more about “social- engineering”.

Unfortunately they again start from an economic not social perspective. Starting in 2021 they introduced a $5700 bounty on getting married, provided both are under 40. Unfortunately, the Government insists that it is funded by local authorities. Only a minority have agreed to run the scheme. Others understand the issues and are running local matchmaking services.